Market Overview – September 2023
Global GDP is expected to grow 2.7% this year, 100 bps above the Bloomberg forecast of a year ago; the US at 2.4%, 200 bps above consensus.
Global economy and markets
- Global GDP is expected to grow 2.7% this year, 100 bps above the Bloomberg forecast of a year ago; the US at 2.4%, 200 bps above consensus.
- Core inflation across G10 economies has fallen from 6% to 3% since end-2022.
- Developments in the Persian Gulf could push crude higher; US Treasury supply and restrictive policy could tighten financial conditions.
- US equities carry more downside than upside risk, with potential spill-over to other markets.
Indian economy
- The IMF’s October 2023 outlook raised India’s FY24 growth projection to 6.3% from 6.1%.
- The upgrade reflects stronger-than-expected consumption in April–June 2023.
- Core inflation softened to 4.5% in September from 4.9% in August, a 42-month low.
Indian stock markets
- Indian markets returned about 8% from April to October 2023, despite weak global markets, a crude spike and election uncertainty.
- The FY24 macro outlook is bright, supported by strong domestic fundamentals.
- The small-cap index neared its all-time high again after an October correction.
- The next three to four months are expected to be volatile given the Lok Sabha elections and geopolitical tensions.
Corporate performance (Q2 FY24)
- Aggregate sales for the top 500 companies grew 4%, while PAT grew about 19% on benign commodity prices.
- Automobiles, Oil & Gas, Insurance, Banks and Capital Goods led growth; Chemicals, IT, Metals and low-ticket consumption were weakest.
- Our top-5 holdings (40% of portfolio) performed well, including Kokuyo Camlin, expected to report ₹4.5–5 EPS for FY24 at about 30x P/E.
Outlook
- Growth Plus Value returned 2.60% over one month versus –2.90% for the BSE 500 TRI, and 33.10% over six months versus 10.90%.
- Short-term volatility is expected to rise; the fund may raise cash to 10%+ or add large-cap weight.
Disclaimer. This overview reflects the views of the Care PMS investment team at the time of publication and is for information only. Investments in equities are subject to market risk. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Please read the disclosure document carefully before investing.
Fund Managers Speak
Market Overview – June 2026
Global growth is forecast to slow to 2.5% this year, the lowest since the pandemic, as higher energy prices, rising inflation, tighter monetary conditions and weaker trade weigh on activity.
Read the overview
Market Overview – March 2026
The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast by 20 bps on Middle East conflict risks; the reference case is 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027.
Read the overview
Market Overview – December 2025
The IMF projects global growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, versus an estimated 3.3% in 2025.
Read the overviewBegin your Care PMS journey.
Invest directly with a SEBI registered portfolio manager, as a resident or a non-resident investor. Contact us at connect@carepms.com and our team will guide you through every step.
- 01
Consultation
A conversation with our team about your objectives, investment horizon and risk appetite, and the approach best suited to them.
- 02
Documentation
A PMS bank account and demat account are opened in your name. You sign the PMS agreement and grant the Power of Attorney.
- 03
Portfolio activation
Invest fresh funds of ₹50 lakh or more, or introduce an existing portfolio. Statements and reporting follow every month.