Market Overview – June 2026
Global growth is forecast to slow to 2.5% this year, the lowest since the pandemic, as higher energy prices, rising inflation, tighter monetary conditions and weaker trade weigh on activity.
Global economy
- Global growth is forecast to slow to 2.5% this year, the lowest since the pandemic, as higher energy prices, rising inflation, tighter monetary conditions and weaker trade weigh on activity.
- Advanced economies are forecast to grow 1.5% this year, down from 1.8% in 2025.
- The US remains resilient, with fiscal easing and AI investment offsetting the impact of conflict; rate-cut expectations have receded.
- The Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh held rates in July, with three Governors dissenting in favour of a hike.
Indian economy
- GST collections for July grew 15.4% to ₹2.11 lakh crore.
- Bank credit growth for July was about 19%.
- Headline CPI inflation was 4.45% in June on food and fuel prices, while core inflation remains contained.
- June rainfall was 40% deficient; July rainfall was slightly above normal, supporting kharif sowing.
Indian stock markets
- The Nifty closed above 24,000 for the first time in five months, up 2.2% month-on-month.
- FII selling eased from over ₹1.15 lakh crore in March 2026 to ₹35,000 crore in June; FIIs turned net buyers in July.
- Global flows that had moved into AI and technology-heavy markets, the US, Taiwan and Korea, appear to be reversing.
Corporate performance (Q1 FY27)
- Nifty revenue grew 19% (vs 16% expected) and PAT 18% (vs 10% expected), the highest growth in ten quarters.
- Margin gains may not persist given low-cost inventory benefits, rupee-depreciation offsets and a low Q1 FY26 base.
- The Growth Plus Value portfolio delivered 18% revenue growth and 23% EBITDA growth for the quarter.
Outlook
- Systemic credit growth rebounded to 18% YoY in July 2026, a two-year high, and GST collections remained above ₹2 trillion.
- The Nifty trades at 18.9x 12-month forward P/E, about 10% below its 21x long-term average.
- BSE 500 small- and mid-caps grew aggregate PAT by nearly 30%, outperforming large-caps for the fourth consecutive quarter.
- The fund has shifted meaningfully toward small- and mid-caps since the start of the year.
Disclaimer. This overview reflects the views of the Care PMS investment team at the time of publication and is for information only. Investments in equities are subject to market risk. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Please read the disclosure document carefully before investing.
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