Market Overview – September 2022
US equities were down about 25% as of September 2022, the worst performance since 2002, amid Fed tightening and shrinking liquidity.
Global economy and markets
- US equities were down about 25% as of September 2022, the worst performance since 2002, amid Fed tightening and shrinking liquidity.
- Economic uncertainty may have peaked in H1 2022 but remains high.
- China faces COVID curbs, global recession risks to exports and a property downturn.
- October inflation was the lowest since January 2022, raising hopes of a slower pace of Fed tightening.
Indian economy
- Growth likely slowed to 6% in Q3 from 13.5% in Q2 (Reuters), yet India remains the fastest-growing major economy.
- October GST collections exceeded ₹1.5 lakh crore; IIP growth was 3.1%.
- Bank credit grew 18% in September 2022, and monsoon rainfall was 7% above normal.
- Retail inflation fell to a three-month low of 6.77% in October.
Indian stock markets
- Indian equities emerged as a safe haven during the global sell-off, with the benchmark recently at an all-time high.
- Foreign investors added a net US$2.5 bn this quarter after withdrawing US$6 bn in the previous three months.
- Markets may remain volatile on macro news, but downside should be limited given underlying economic strength.
Corporate performance (Q2 FY23)
- Nearly 60% of companies met or beat expectations; revenue for 2,275 listed companies rose 22.3% YoY, largely on pricing.
- Net profit fell 6.3% on higher raw-material and energy costs, the first quarterly decline since April–June 2020.
- BFSI, auto, capital goods, paper, hospitality and retail led; cement, metals, consumer durables, pharma, oil & gas and media underperformed.
- Managements are cautiously optimistic about an H2 FY23 demand revival and sequential EBITDA-margin improvement.
Outlook
- The Nifty and Sensex neared all-time highs, but our portfolios underperformed over two to three months as the rally stayed narrow.
- Small- and mid-cap indices trailed the Nifty/Sensex by more than 5% in October and November.
- Companies with strong near-term visibility offer attractive risk-reward; domestic-focused companies should fare better in the short term.
Disclaimer. This overview reflects the views of the Care PMS investment team at the time of publication and is for information only. Investments in equities are subject to market risk. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Please read the disclosure document carefully before investing.
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