Market Overview – March 2025
The IMF cut its 2025 global growth outlook by 50 bps to 2.8% in April, from 3.3% in January, citing trade and policy uncertainty.
Global economy
- The IMF cut its 2025 global growth outlook by 50 bps to 2.8% in April, from 3.3% in January, citing trade and policy uncertainty.
- US growth is seen slowing to 1.8% from 2.7%; developed economies to 1.4% (down 0.5%); China’s estimate was cut 0.6% to 4.0%.
- The Federal Reserve held rates at its May meeting and now expects two cuts in 2025, up from one.
Indian economy
- The RBI lowered its FY26 growth projection to 6.5% from 6.7% on trade tensions and global uncertainty.
- Q4 FY25 GDP grew 7.4%, well above expectations, led by core sectors.
- Two successive rate cuts, an accommodative stance and ₹900 billion of long-term liquidity leave room for further support.
Indian stock markets
- Since the February 2025 low, the Nifty 50 rose 12%, mid-caps 20% and small-caps 22%.
- Drivers included in-line Q4 FY25 earnings, progress on bilateral trade, easing regional tensions, a strong FY26 macro set-up and improved risk appetite.
- FII inflows were positive for a third consecutive month in May (about ₹20,000 crore), the highest in eight months, while DII flows stayed strong.
Corporate performance
- Around 3,300 listed entities reported roughly 5% top-line growth and about 12% EBITDA growth in Q4 FY25.
- Operating margin rose 19 bps to 15.03% from 14.84% in Q3 FY25.
- Net profit rose 16% for large-caps, 12.6% for mid-caps and 4.8% for small-caps.
- Domestic-facing sectors outperformed, while export-heavy IT services and chemicals remained under pressure.
Outlook
- Valuations remain above pre-pandemic levels despite global growth and inflation risks, higher bond yields and short-term domestic challenges.
- Structural domestic inflows, returning FII flows and India’s relative appeal amid tariff threats may keep valuations elevated.
- Markets may need a few more months of steady performance before moving higher; we prefer a selective, bottom-up, fundamentals-driven approach.
Disclaimer. This overview reflects the views of the Care PMS investment team at the time of publication and is for information only. Investments in equities are subject to market risk. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Please read the disclosure document carefully before investing.
Fund Managers Speak
Market Overview – June 2026
Global growth is forecast to slow to 2.5% this year, the lowest since the pandemic, as higher energy prices, rising inflation, tighter monetary conditions and weaker trade weigh on activity.
Read the overview
Market Overview – March 2026
The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast by 20 bps on Middle East conflict risks; the reference case is 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027.
Read the overview
Market Overview – December 2025
The IMF projects global growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, versus an estimated 3.3% in 2025.
Read the overviewBegin your Care PMS journey.
Invest directly with a SEBI registered portfolio manager, as a resident or a non-resident investor. Contact us at connect@carepms.com and our team will guide you through every step.
- 01
Consultation
A conversation with our team about your objectives, investment horizon and risk appetite, and the approach best suited to them.
- 02
Documentation
A PMS bank account and demat account are opened in your name. You sign the PMS agreement and grant the Power of Attorney.
- 03
Portfolio activation
Invest fresh funds of ₹50 lakh or more, or introduce an existing portfolio. Statements and reporting follow every month.